Saturday, April 23, 2005

April 23 Aggregate Seat Projection

UPDATE (6:05pm PT):
Poll Averages Conservative Green Liberal N.D.P. BQ
Atlantic 36% 3% 44% 16% 0%
Quebec 15% 4% 20% 10% 51%
Ontario 39% 5% 36% 19% 0%
Prairies 50% 3% 25% 18% 0%
Alberta 61% 5% 20% 13% 0%
British Columbia 34% 10% 26% 28% 0%
SAMPLE: 4000

THE NEW SEAT NUMBERS ARE UP:



THIS IS the April 23 seat projection from the 3 latest polls with regional data. You can get the latest IPSOS breakdown here (pdf via Nealenews). The sample size is 4000 Canadians over the past 9 days.

SINCE the last aggregate 1 week ago:
  • CONSERVATIVES are UP 11 seats.
  • LIBERALS are DOWN 8 seats.
  • NDP is DOWN 3 seats.
  • BQ is STEADY at 68.


CONS Green Liberal N.D.P. BQ Total
Newfoundland 2 0 5 0 0 7
PEI
0 0 4 0 0 4
Nova Scotia 4 0 7 0 0 11
New Brunswick 2 0 7 1 0 10
Quebec 0 0 7 0 68 75
Ontario 55 0 40 11 0 106
Manitoba 10 0 0 4 0 14
Saskatchewan 13 0 1 0 0 14
Alberta 28 0 0 0 0 28
British Columbia 19 0 5 12 0 36
The North 0 0 2 1 0 3
Totals 133 0 78 29 68 308
April 23/2005 CONS Green Liberal N.D.P. BQ Totals


UPDATE (cont'd): Some people are concerned that the NDP are being shut out of the Atlantic provinces, while the Liberals only have 7 Quebec seats projected.
  • First of all, this projection is an opinion.
  • Secondly, I have not made any human adjustments to the computer model seat projection. I do realize that there are some anomalies across the country. Independents, federalist seats, etc.
  • Come election time, I will be making human adjustments to arrive at a more accurate prediction.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

These projections suck. The NDP will take maritime seats, even though I wish they would not.

Jonathan said...

They are just projections on a computer based model which analysed results from the last federal election. I have not tweaked them with my knowledge of independants and ridings in Quebec which will undoubtedly go Liberal.

Once the election commences, I will begin to make my own modifications to assign more accuracy to the model.

Anonymous said...

Where do you get the computer based model?

Jonathan said...

The model is found at talkcanada.blogspot.com

My model has been modified though...and I do aggregates, while Don does non-aggregates - so far.

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