Saturday, April 23, 2005

New polls

I HAVE the latest poll numbers taken this past weekend and week. Below is National and Ontario data. Some observations first:
  • MARTIN'S SPEECH may have shifted support towards the Conservatives. IPSOS reports that "there was a "spike" in support for the Conservatives" during the night of the televised address to the nation.
  • SEAT PROJECTIONS by IPSOS conclude that the Conservatives are "bumping up against a majority."
  • HOWEVER MY LATEST AGGREGATE polling data suggests that Liberals are slowly regaining their support. Liberal support has risen a full 2 percent in the past week or so.
  • CONSERVATIVE SUPPORT is slowly rising, but levelling off at around 35 percent.
  • ONTARIO NOW APPEARS to be shifting slowly into Conservative country. The latest poll by IPSOS suggests that the Conservative support is growing rapidly over the past month. This is key for the Liberals. IPSOS:"For the Liberals, you have to ask, if they lose these seats in Ontario, where are they going to make them up?"

::NATIONAL:::::::::::




LIB
CON







NDP
BQ









April


29.83%
35.00%








17.11%
12.47%









15-17 Decima
28
35







18
14









16-17 Pollara
31
35







15
12









19-21 IPSOS
30
35







18
12









SAMPLE SIZE: 4260

::ONTARIO:::::::::::::


LIB
CONS

NDP


April
37.2%
39.2%

19.2%


16-17 Pollara 39
38

18


19-21 IPSOS 36
40

20


SAMPLE SIZE: 1000

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