Sunday, April 17, 2005

Poll Averages

SUNDAY NIGHT UPDATE: I have replaced first Ipsos Poll with the Saturday COMPAS/National Post/Global Numbers. The results are even more tight, and I believe to be very accurate (thanks to All things Canadian for the original spreadsheet).

I have analysed the data for the last 3 polls this week. Two were done this week by IPSOS-REID/Globe and Mail the other is the COMPAS/National Post poll released Saturday. I chose these polls because I find that IPSOS polls are very accurate and that the COMPAS has been commissioned by the other national newspaper, the NATPOST. The total sample size is 3,200. It is using the spreadsheet developed here (All things Canadian).




CONS Liberal N.D.P. BQ Totals
Newfoundland 2 5 0 0 7
Prince Edward Island 0 4 0 0 4
Nova Scotia 3 7 1 0 11
New Brunswick 2 7 1 0 10
Quebec 0 7 0 68 75
Ontario 45 46 15 0 106
Manitoba 10 0 4 0 14
Saskatchewan 13 1 0 0 14
Alberta 28 0 0 0 28
British Columbia 19 7 10 0 36
The North 0 2 1 0 3
Totals 122 86 32 68 308
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Poll Averages CONS Green Liberal N.D.P. BQ Undecided
Atlantic 31% 3% 38% 16% 0% 14%
Quebec 15% 3% 17% 8% 46% 7%
Ontario 33% 4% 34% 19% 0% 11%
Prairies 46% 2% 21% 19% 0% 13%
Alberta 61% 3% 14% 15% 0% 9%
BC 34% 5% 26% 28% 0% 7%

Points of Interest

COMPAS SHOWED THAT Quebecers are 1 percent less likely to vote for the BQ when reminded of the Gomery revelations, while the rest of Canada are, on average, 3 percent less likely to vote for the Liberals when reminded.

IN BC, the NDP are second place. No surprise here.

IN QUEBEC, Liberals are left with 7 seats. I guess this correlates with this article in the Montreal Gazette.

LIBERALS STILL LEAD in Atlantic Canada by a healthy margin.

UPDATE 2: I was asked what just the latest IPSOS numbers would do to the seat distribution. Here are the details:


CONS Liberal N.D.P. BQ
Newfoundland 3 4 0 0
Prince Edward Island 0 4 0 0
Nova Scotia 5 6 0 0
New Brunswick 5 4 1 0
Quebec 1 15 0 59
Ontario 67 28 11 0
Manitoba 8 4 2 0
Saskatchewan 13 1 0 0
Alberta 28 0 0 0
British Columbia 30 4 2 0
The North 0 2 1 0
Totals 160 72 17 59

Based on this, the Liberals would get crushed. And interestingly enough, the Conservatives only come away with 1 seat in Quebec! However, something tells me that 30 seats in BC for the CONS is a bit unlikely. If you take a closer look at the distribution, Conservatives are weak everywhere east of Ontario, winning only 14 seats. The swing province is Ontario. Every seat is a two point differential between the Liberals and Conservatives, since they are the major players in that province. If the CONS can clean up Ontario and solidify their Western base, I would say that a Tory majority is in the cards without even tapping into the 100 or so seats east of Ottawa.

If you would like to see how I analysed the data, just email me here for more details.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Nice work. I'm interested in how constructed your projections, and if you think any independents have a chance of winning.

I'm Blogrolling your site and would appreciate the favour for my new political moblog.

Thanks.
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