Monday, April 11, 2005

Weekend Gomery/Liberal Roundup

What a difference a few days makes:

During publication ban:
IPSOS-REID: Liberals (34% support) lead Conservatives (30%) by 4%.
ENVIRONICS: Liberals (36%) lead Conservatives (30%) by 6%.
EKOS: Conservatives (36%) lead Liberals (25%) by 11%.

An EKOS poll finds 25 per cent of respondents across Canada say they would vote for Liberals if an election were held.

Thirty-six-per cent said they would vote for the Conservatives, an increase of 10 points from a survey taken in February. 20 per cent said they vote for the N-D-P, and 12.6 per cent said they'd vote for the Bloc Quebecois.

Remember that Liberals led Tories by over 15 percent before last election was called. Now it is 11 percent. Could it get worse for the Liberal party? Assuming that Conservative support is half of the Liberal party in Quebec (25% to 13%), that must mean that the gap between the Conservatives and Liberals is huge across the rest of Canada.

UPDATE: EKOS: "The poll also suggests that Liberal support has dropped in its stronghold province of Ontario, where the Conservatives now lead with 40 per cent. The Liberals have 33 per cent support."
  • CONS lead Liberals in Quebec.
  • The only income group in which Canadians would vote Liberal: Those earning over $100,000
  • CONS lead among women and men.
  • Atlantic Canada and Ontario have seen the biggest shift in voting patterns.
  • Alberta: now a70% Conservative country.

Former Liberal/Chretien pollster from Pollara, Mr. Marzolini, is flatly wrong: "You can't win a campaign only based on negatives if you're Stephen Harper because you've got too many negatives." He might have forgotten Jean Chretien's 1993 campaign against Kim Campbell: anti-GST tax, anti-NAFTA. Chretien won; Campbell's majority was reduced to 2 seats.

BLOG FACTOR: Blogs, specifically the rebel Captain's Quarters and promoter InstaPundit, have surely lifted the publication ban singlehandedly. In effect, the only reason why there is election talk right now is because of the Captain and his free-speech supporters. Bloggers take credit for being influential on the US political scene; they deserve plenty for stirring up the furor of the Canadian people against their government. It is really Locke's State of War.

THE MEDIA BIAS FACTOR: Reuters, as well as most newspapers I have managed to read, have really dropped the ball on the latest round of polling.

The articles are bias as hell. Ontario is the most important battleground province. Yet it is at the bottom of the page. Take the Reuters story:
The Liberals slipped to 38 percent in Ontario from 43 percent in February, while the Conservatives rose to 34 percent in the latest poll from 28 percent in February.
More examples which seem to indicate the current Liberal desperation:

POINTLESS FIGHTING: Liberal/Chretien ideologue Warren Kinsella vs. National Post Editorial Board

MARTIN TO HARPER: Don't trigger an election until Gomery reports - Martin: We need more time (to shred our paper trail). Here is Martin's spokesperson Scott Reid:
"Will the leader of the Opposition give Canadians a guarantee that he will let Justice (John) Gomery report his findings - that he will not force voters into an election until they have the answers that this prime minister has said that they deserve?"
Of course, Reid might have forgotten that Martin called his June election without any "answers" from the sponsorship scandal.


FLASHBACK: Remember the June 2004 English leaders debate? Gilles Duceppe said:
"We still do not know if any ministers in your cabinet were involved, because you refused to answer the question."
Well, now we know why Martin hummed and hawed while "answering" this question. Duceppe was on to something here.

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