Monday, May 16, 2005

Polls!

Nealenews headlines the new Ontario poll showing a strong Liberal lead.

A new poll suggests that the Grits are leading 12 points in Ontario. But wait! If you groan at such a sight, there is good news for you. According to CTV, "the poll of 1,000 Ontarians was conducted between May 3 to 9." This is in line with the IPSOS poll "conducted from May 3 to May 5, 2005." This poll showed the Grits leading in Ontario by 11 points.

BUT

A NEWER POLL by IPSOS was " conducted from May 10 to May 12, 2005." This is the three days AFTER the Nealenews-linked Leger poll. This is after the obstructionist efforts by the opposition in the House of Commons.

It appears that circumstantial evidence points to this effort actually working in the opposition favour, as the Liberals actually DROPPED eleven points during the past week.

Perhaps news sites will actually cite this as a grain of salt to their stories. Probably not.

3 comments:

matt said...

so, um, up 11 and quickly down 11? maybe there was no change in the first place and this is one of those 5 times out of 100 the poll (regardless of its margin of error) is wrong?

Raging Ranter said...

I would say we tend to overreact to polls. Until recently, I would spend the whole day in a grumpy mood after seeing the results of a poll like that, but I don't worry about it anymore. Numbers move alot during elections, so where they are now is not that important. Also, poll results depend on how the questions are worded, the time of day they were called, etc... I think the Conservatives are in pretty good shape going into this one.

Tommy Steele said...

While writing off a whole day to a single poll is probably extreme, general polling trends and aggregate polls do significantly represent the target population. Remeber the American race? So, I would argue that while the Conservatives look good right now, the initial outrage at the scandal is ebbing somewhat. You'd be surprised how many people hem and haw at the polls, and end up casting for the Liberals. Another Liberal minority is the more likely outcome of a spring election.