Saturday, November 26, 2005

Nov. 22-24 - Poll Aggregates

IT IS THAT time again: election season.

On the Potent Pew, that means endless speculation in the form of poll aggregates. From now until voting day, we will be projecting national seat distribution based on the 3 most recent polls. This projection is based on a modification of this blogger's hard work. This means more accuracy, assuming that a larger sample size (ie. 4000 people) is more accurate than a single poll (ie. 1000 people).

ON THE EVE of the election, there are currently 3 recent polls out:
You can visit each to independently view their methodology, breakdowns, etc. Here, however, we are most concerned about seat projections by averaging polls.

Here are the results of combining all the regional data for these polls (minus the Robbins Research poll):



Scaled Poll to Analyze Undecided

CONS Green Party Liberal N.D.P. BQ
Atlantic 36% 1% 45% 19% 0%
Quebec 10% 3% 27% 7% 53%
Ontario 33% 6% 45% 16% 0%
Prairies 44% 3% 31% 22% 0%
Alberta 56% 5% 26% 12% 0%
British Columbia 28% 6% 34% 33% 0%

Projection







CONS Green Liberal N.D.P. BQ Totals
Newfoundland 2 0 5 0 0 7
Prince Edward Island 0 0 4 0 0 4
Nova Scotia 3 0 7 1 0 11
New Brunswick 2 0 7 1 0 10
Quebec 0 0 8 0 67 75
Ontario 27 0 75 4 0 106
Manitoba 7 0 3 4 0 14
Saskatchewan 13 0 1 0 0 14
Alberta 26 0 2 0 0 28
British Columbia 10 0 15 11 0 36
The North 0 0 2 1 0 3
Totals 90 0 129 22 67 308
November 22-24 CONS Green Liberal N.D.P. BQ Totals

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