Sunday, December 04, 2005

Dec. 4 2005 Canada Election Poll Aggregate

HERE ARE THE latest polling numbers. As I have said before, the Ipsos poll appears to be the most "believable" poll. The EKOS poll, on the other hand, is very far from believable, in my opinion.

Take this example: EKOS has the Conservatives at 27% in the prairies compared to the Liberals' 34%. Every other poll I have looked at during this period has the Conservatives up at least 10 points, and in some cases up 14% in this same region. The same poll has Liberals up 10 percent in BC. All other polls have the Conservatives with a 3 to 9 percent lead. Keeping in mind that all these polls were done at the same time as each other, the EKOS poll appears to be an anomaly. Take these latest numbers with a grain of salt.

Latest polls (sample size in italics)
Poll 1: SES Research Nov.28-Dec.1 1200
Poll 2: EKOS Nov. 28-Dec.1 1308
Poll 3: Ipsos Nov.28-Dec.1 2450
4958 Total Sample

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