Thursday, December 08, 2005

SES Research Canada / CPAC / Decima / Globe and Mail Strategic Counsel Polling numbers

There has been some talk today about the latest SES Research and Decima polls. I am hesitant to add these polls to the latest poll aggregation for two reasons:

1) There is insufficient regional data. I can't find the regional Decima data. And the SES Research poll does not distinguish between the regions of Manitoba and BC, for example - in my view, a grave error.

2) I don't trust these polls. The SES poll seems out of whack. For instance, it has the Liberals with a 40 percent advantage in the Maritimes. 40. The latest EKOS poll puts that lead at 20. Such large shifts in voter intention are rare without any forseeable cause. The Liberal lead is also 20 points in Ontario. The most recent MacLeans poll put the Cons and Libs in a neck and neck race. The Decima poll, on the other hand, is online. Even though the sample size is a whopping 9,000, it is still online. I don't trust it.

The Strategic Counsel poll appears to be more accurate than these two. However, since there are no regional detailed numbers, I cannot add it into the aggregation. Thankfully, IPSOS and EKOS appears to be doing mid-week polls which are released on the weekends, which can provide a better idea of what is going out in the public.

UPDATE: I have just discovered that Strategic Counsel is publishing their regional data. See here for their latest example. This is good news. This means that there will be more frequent seat predictions and poll aggregation here on the Potent Pew. An update will occur as soon as the IPSOS poll is released.

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