Monday, January 16, 2006

Canada Election 2006 Jan. 16 Seat Projection: IPSOS/Strategic Counsel/EKOS polls



This week's Potent Pew seat projection based on samples from Jan.10-12, 14 are out. It is based on an aggregate sample of 4545 people during that time. They show the following distributions:

Conservatives: 152
Liberals: 69
NDP: 22
Bloc: 65

This is not all far from Strategic Counsel's own projection based on their polling, which shows

Conservatives:
152
Liberals: 74
NDP: 21
Bloc: 60

The Conservatives are right on the bubble of a majority. Here are some interesting tidbits in the Pew's projections:
  • Conservatives take 6 seats in Quebec.
  • Conservatives have 65 seats in Ontario, with 29 seats for the Liberals.
  • Liberals take 17 seats east of Ontario, with 15 of those coming from BC.
  • The NDP only takes 2 seats in BC. I admit that this is lower than what will actually happen. I expect at least 4, at the bare minimum, seats going to the NDP in BC come election night. The provincial numbers for the NDP are really slipping though. As in, three polls show the NDP between 22-25 percent.

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

This is driven by family values offered by the prospect of a conservative government. Liberals prefer to espouse gay rights, drug decriminalization and going easy on crime, which is hardly in touch with what most Canadians want. Paul Martin is scaring people away, because he offers a scary future.

Anonymous said...

I think that this projects a sad future for Canada. I for one am frightened to live in a Canada under Stephen Harper, and I would even prefer Martin, though he's hardly any better.

Unlike the poster before me, I think gay rights and drug decriminalization is in touch with what a lot of Canadians want. At the very least a vast majority of young Canadians.

Anonymous said...

How dose Harper scare the heck out of you? I can’t see the reasoning for that. He is one of us. Not a Lawyer that wants to steel our money. I find it funny how Liberal’s say they stand up for minority rights but slam every one that has some morals views in life. If the Liberal continues to govern we will have a state where we are not free to express a view no matter who you are and a court system that will run the county that in not even elected… Sounds like communism to me. A conservative government is for the people…. Stand up for Canada …… Vote for anyone but Liberal and we will stay free.

Anonymous said...

A conservative government is for the people? I think you got people and business confused. Tax cuts don’t benefit anyone except those who have money. I think every Canadian can agree that taxes are okay, as long as the money is invested back into the society like it should be. What is the sense in giving tax cuts, when those who need it most, won’t receive anything back. We all know what the liberals do with our money. I can make a pretty good assumption that the only people to benefit from the conservatives getting in are the ones who hold office in the country south of us. Why don’t we give the NDP a chance. Which is so far the only party that is actually standing up for Canada by addressing the issues faced by the people in our country.

Anonymous said...

By the way, communism means for the people. Hense the root word community.

Anonymous said...

Let's thank Mr. Layton and Mr. Duceppe. They did all they could to destroy the Liberals, now they look so amazed people have gone Coservatives. On the other hand, this is so normal in Westminster system, either one or another...

Anonymous said...

The views that I find the most interesting in this country at this time are the ones that say that they don't support the liberals but they are afraid of a country run by Harper. Do they not realize that striking fear into the hearts of Canadians about what Harper might do is the basis of the Liberal election campaign?

Let's stop with the 'what if' campaign and get on with the 'what is' campaign.

Canada has been under a Liberal government for 16 years (since 1993). In our system this means that for 16 years the makers of our laws (Senators) have been appointed to life-long positions by those with liberal views. Having that much influence in both houses does not represent the democratic values of Canadians. Even under a conservative government the liberals will still control the views of the senate until senators are elected whereby they can represent up to date regional views. If a conservative government had been in for 16 years I’d be telling you to vote liberal. Remember the truism… Absolute power corrupts absolutely. A vote for the conservatives at this point in Canadian history represents a vote for democracy.

Anonymous said...

Sad is Jack Layton...ever notice one thing about the NDP and entire left wing movement....they like to spend spend spend on special groups...by no means am I wealthy but I'm tired of being taxed to death to support social programs...how, with any common sense, can you suggest that a vote for the NDP is in Canada's best interest....elect a NDP government and we're headed right back into deficit...elect a Liberal government and the scnadals will continue....

Elect a Conservative government and allow our economy to continue to support the people of Canada, not the government.

Last I checked, there was pride in holding a job and having an income....would prefer minimum wage over social assistance...

Anonymous said...

Someone clue in the guy who thinks it's 2009. The Liberals have been in power since 1993, which makes it 12 years, not 16!! ;-)

Anonymous said...

Gah!! 12 years plus a little, anyway (since we've just started 2006)

Anonymous said...

Of course, you could count the Senate control as being "in power" too.

Anonymous said...

Great-a Tory government with 5 years to do whatever they want. Who wants to bet their $29 Billion worth of spending cuts will include the employment insurance program and programs for the poor? Canada's own George Weasel for 5 years!! Hoorah!!

Anonymous said...

One comment that I have been hearing on the news coming out of the Martin mouth (other than I….I…In Fact…I…..I. In Fact….Frankly…..) is under the Progressive Conservative Party there was deficit of 30 billion last time they where in power.

May I remind people of our dept that the liberal have not done anything with is around 600 billion dollars. Which was caused by the Trudeau Liberal’s in the past. Because of this dept the Progressive Conservatives (no longer in existence) had to have a deficit. So Martin comes on and say he got ride of the deficit. I don’t think so Pau! Interest rate fell at the time and you got lucky. Think about the interest rates at that time as compared to Progressive Conservatives… I don’t have to be a economist to figure out that the only reason the liberal balance the books was due to the interest rates going down at that time as well as oil revenues in recent years. They are the one that got us in dept with Trudea; if the Liberal want to bring up the past. The liberal don’t have a plan. People there are choices out there NDP, Greens, Independents, Conservatives. I don’t know how you can look yourself in the mirror after you vote if you voted for the corrupt Liberal’s and a moron like Martin. That the same as letting OJ Simpson walk when we all knew in our hearts that he was guilty.

Stand Up For Canada

Anonymous said...

Talking about the liberals and commuinist view points. When the one post said it mean for the people. So I checked out the commuist web site at www.communist-party.ca. I could not believe my eyes.... They really are the same as the liberials.. Check it out for your self.

Moncton NB said...

It is amazing to hear rich Liberal and NDP politicians try to make a virtue out of high taxes. We all need to have good social programs but Canadians pay a lot more taxes than other countries for less social programs. We are taxed like socialists but given social programs more like a capitalist country. Only the Conservatives offer real tax relief for everyone through the GST reduction and income tax relief for groups that need it or help advance our country's goals (like using transist and getting kids active). The Conservatives are going to cut taxes and continue and enhance our social programs--something we all know the government can do if it gets honest and wise in the use of our tax dollars.

Anonymous said...

Nhe governments sole purpose in the econonmy should be to maintain the value of the monetary unit. Not to redistribute wealth, engage in fraud or give kickbacks to anyone. A governmnet that stays out of people's lives and wallets is "for the people"... socialism only benefits bureaucrats.

Anonymous said...

10 years ago canada was far less respected around the world,even I felt like the united states junior.now that we took our owne stance on iraq despite US warnings of cosequences we have flourished and I dont need change when canada has become better during this period