This week's Potent Pew seat projection based on samples from Jan.10-12, 14 are out. It is based on an aggregate sample of 4545 people during that time. They show the following distributions:
This is not all far from Strategic Counsel's own projection based on their polling, which shows
The Conservatives are right on the bubble of a majority. Here are some interesting tidbits in the Pew's projections:
- Conservatives take 6 seats in Quebec.
- Conservatives have 65 seats in Ontario, with 29 seats for the Liberals.
- Liberals take 17 seats east of Ontario, with 15 of those coming from BC.
- The NDP only takes 2 seats in BC. I admit that this is lower than what will actually happen. I expect at least 4, at the bare minimum, seats going to the NDP in BC come election night. The provincial numbers for the NDP are really slipping though. As in, three polls show the NDP between 22-25 percent.