Saturday, January 21, 2006

Canada Election 2006: Jan. 21 Seat projections (Strategic Counsel / IPSOS / EKOS)



Here is the latest seat projections based on three recent polls that I have aggregated to produce a projection based upon a mega-sample.

Poll 1: IPSOS Jan. 17-19 (2000)
Poll 2: EKOS Jan. 16-19 (3251)
Poll 3: Strategic Counsel Jan. 17,18,19 (1500)
Total sample size: 6751

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The seat breakdown goes something like this:

Conservatives: 131
Liberals: 81
NDP: 33
Bloc: 64

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Notes:
  • In Quebec, the Liberals get 5 seats; the Tories gain 6 seats.
  • In Ontario, the battle is neck and neck. The Tories edge out the Liberals for some seats 46-43. The NDP gain 17.
  • In Alberta, the map is painted completely blue.
  • In BC, the Tories have 20 seats, compared to 8 seats for the NDP and Liberals. Personally, I think the Liberals won't get 8 seats. They would be lucky to get 5 seats. When I do my final prediction, I will make some regional tweaks.
  • In the Atlantic, the Tories come out with 11 seats compared to 18 for the Grits.






11 comments:

Blaino said...

Here's my predictions:
Cons 143
Libs 63
NDP 39
Bloc 63

Anonymous said...

Cons 111
Libs 98
NDP 37
Bloc 62

Anonymous said...

Here's my prediction:

Conservative 162
Liberal 51
NDP 43
Bloc 52

Anonymous said...

My predictions...based on a larger conservative groundswell and left-splitting between Libs and NDP.

Cons 165
Libs 53
NDP 36
Bloc 54

Anonymous said...

Cons 145
Libs 74
NDP 35
Bloc 55

Anonymous said...

Your Graph ends with a big C shape. Fittingly Conservative.

Anonymous said...

I think that the people of Canada will come out in droves this time around and vote. I think that there will be some very close races.
Here's what I think:
Con: 139
Lib: 65
NDP: 43
Bloc: 61

Anonymous said...

Your projections are very close to my own, using a spreadsheet I have had going quite accurately since 1984. The numbers (yours/mine) are Conservatives: 131/125; Liberals: 81/90; NDP: 33/28; Bloc: 64/65

* In Quebec, the Liberals get 5 seats all of them in Greater Montreal; the Tories gain 6/5 seats.
* In Ontario, the battle is < exactly neck and neck. The Tories edge out the Liberals for some seats 46/48-43/48. The NDP gain 17. 10 -- there aren't 17 seats left?"
* In Alberta, the map is painted completely blue. I show 2 Liberal seats
* In BC, the Tories have 20/17 seats, compared to 8/7 seats for the NDP and 8/11 Liberals. Personally, I think the Liberals won't get 8 seats. They would be lucky to get 5 seats. When I do my final prediction, I will make some regional tweaks.
* In the Atlantic, the Tories come out with 11/12 seats compared to 18/17 for the Grits. Three NDP, right?

Rarihokwats fourarrows@rogers.com

Anonymous said...

Here's my predictions:
Cons 123
Libs 75
NDP 46
Bloc 64

Anonymous said...

My results"

Liberal 114
Conservative 111
NDP 22
Bloc 60

Azalyn said...

And the actual results, along with popular vote stats.

Conservative -- : 124 // Pop.Vote: 36.3
Liberals ------ : 103 // Pop.Vote: 30.2
Bloc Qc. ------ : 51 // Pop.Vote: 10.5
NDP ----------- : 29 // Pop.Vote: 17.5

I was hoping against hope that the Liberals would pull it off, but even so, this isn't such a bad result, the Liberals are going to be an *extremely* tough opposition with 103 seats. They only need *one* of the other parties, either the Bloc or the NDP, to bring down Harper. Meaning the government is thankfully still overwealmingly to the left.

Harper's minority government is even more razor thin than Martin's was. Harper will definitely face a *lot* of pressure. If Bush is expecting a new pal here in Canada, he's got another thing coming.

I am curious who will be the next leader of the Liberal party...

Belinda Stronarch won her riding it seems, despite having crossed the floor, she had run as a candidate for conservative party leadership against Harper and Jim Prentice while on the conservative side, maybe she'll run for leader again now? We'll have to wait and see. ;)

All in all, I don't like that Harper has gotten a 'boost' but in any case, these are not the incredibly devastating results that many had predicted, the Liberals still hold a considerable amount of power, and won various important ridings that were considered at risk.

Even better is the fact that the NDP has gained many new seats, thus strengthening them even more. Maybe next election we'll see the NDP taking an even better lead, and one day they may have a shot at winning it. :D

In any case, I'm not very let down, the results aren't optimal, but they're satisfactory. Harper has won but he's backed into a corner, I doubt he will be able to implement any of his party promises very effectively with this kind of pressure on him.

I was afraid that same-sex marriage might be at risk, but with this kind of pressure, he wont be able to use the notwithstanding clause without a serious backlash in the form of yet another downed government. (Despite him 'saying' he wouldn't do it, I hope you don't expect me to trust him and take his word for it)

I noticed Harper ends his speeches with "God Bless Canada". He also did it for his victory speech. Someone should tell him that this is Canada, not the USA.