Here is the latest seat projections based on three recent polls that I have aggregated to produce a projection based upon a mega-sample.
Poll 1: IPSOS Jan. 17-19 (2000)
Poll 2: EKOS Jan. 16-19 (3251)
Poll 3: Strategic Counsel Jan. 17,18,19 (1500)
Total sample size: 6751
The seat breakdown goes something like this:
- In Quebec, the Liberals get 5 seats; the Tories gain 6 seats.
- In Ontario, the battle is neck and neck. The Tories edge out the Liberals for some seats 46-43. The NDP gain 17.
- In Alberta, the map is painted completely blue.
- In BC, the Tories have 20 seats, compared to 8 seats for the NDP and Liberals. Personally, I think the Liberals won't get 8 seats. They would be lucky to get 5 seats. When I do my final prediction, I will make some regional tweaks.
- In the Atlantic, the Tories come out with 11 seats compared to 18 for the Grits.