Monday, January 09, 2006

Canada Election 2006: Jan. 9 Seat Projections (via Globe and Mail / EKOS / IPSOS polls)



Going into tonight's debates, Stephen Harper has a commanding lead on Paul Martin. The latest Strategic Counsel / Globe and Mail / CTV poll (Jan. 8) shows momentum clearly in Harper's favour:
  • Conservatives: 53 per cent (+30)
  • Liberals: 14 per cent (-19)
  • NDP: 6 per cent (-4)
  • Bloc Quebecois: 6 per cent (-3)
  • Greens: 1 per cent (-1)
That said, the latest seat projections based on aggregating the three latest polls, with a collective sample size of 5472, show the Tories gaining a solid minority. Our seat projections show that the Tories are 16 seats short of a majority government if the election were held today.

The latest poll sample are from IPSOS Jan. 7/EKOS Jan. 7/Strategic Counsel Jan. 8.

The national seat breakdown looks like this:
  • Conservatives 139
  • Liberals 82
  • Bloc 65
  • NDP 22
In Ontario, the Tories lead the Grits 61-33 in seat totals. In Quebec, the Tories pick up 2 seats. Liberals still dominate Atlantic Canada, but are shut out in Alberta.



These projections are pretty consistent with other projections. Going into the leader's debate, the question will be, "does Stephen Harper look like a frontrunner?" If he looks anything but, I will predict that the Liberals will be back in the race. With visibility often comes a shift in perception. When the media can no longer spin the contest and the candidates are seen in their own words, people tend to have their faith restored. The question is, can Harper keep people from that perception that momentum is no longer in the Tories' favour?

7 comments:

Raging Ranter said...

Looks like, for now at least, we're creeping nearer to majority territory. Not that I would ever use the 'M' word in public. The word is the Libs are preparing a last-ditch onslaught of sleazy attacks and mud-slinging. Expect them to dredge up things like the "Firewall", and Stockwell Day's dinosaurs, among others. I predict this to backfire totally. All the Tories have to do is point out that the Liberals want us to forget their own past, while fighting the election against previous versions of the Conservative Party. The contradiction will be obvious to the voters. We all love irony.

Anonymous said...

Canadians may be about to blunder their way into the ash can of history and have been saved by the minority Governance they have just had. The need for change is real but this will only begin to happen if people change the patterns of how they vote enough to compel the parties to respect the people of the country. I call this Harold Ballard Syndrome and just like leafs Fans they kept filling the house on Carlton St. despite the utter lack of talent on the ice. Vote drastically different than you have in the past and keep the minority, YOUR future depends on better governance NOW. Canada seems lost from the outside...signed An Expat who Still Owns a Piece of The Rock

Kawartha Kid said...

I can't dismiss Layton as quickly as some folks because the Grits amd Tories have more recently showed their true colours. Everyone went on and on about Rae in Ontario but he didn't scupper every last thing and pass the tab to the citizens. Chretien's (oh sorry... Martin's) bunch balanced their budget on little folks and have rarely done anything that inspires hope for the longer term. I like my country and I want someone to restore it's soul and pride too!

Heartfelt Pheeling said...

Hi I am from Ontario and I am gonna vote Tory ehh!...RIGHT THEN. Think about it, duh.

Anonymous said...

There is nothing wrong with Canada that voting Conservative will "fix".

In fact, Canada is working very well and no fixes are required!

Sure, some Liberals have become lazy and even corrupt, but our system (judicial and legislative opposition are already satisfactorily addressing these issues). However, on the whole, the Liberals have deep talent, temperment and experience to meet Canadians needs.

No dramatic change of goverance is required. Stay the course my fellow Canadians.

Anonymous said...

Lets get right to the point! You all have three choices federally to choose your next leader of the most progressive country in the free world! And I really believe it all comes down to what each party REALLY believes in that REALLY matters. So lets run down your choices:

The NDP - Can someone let Mr. Layton know that if he continues ranting about the working class, students and seniors anymore were all going to fall asleep. YES, these people make up the majority of the population in this country but ya wanna know what people think when they hear NDP......They think of a party that is socially the true WINNER but, at the same time the absolute biggest LOSER when it comes to running the country's finances. My advice for Jack, take a course in money managing and become financially capable to run a country with a budget of approximately 170 Billion dollars. Til then continue to be the go-to man for the other two parties.

The Conservative Party - Well where do I begin! I really want everyone to stop mentioning that this party has a hidden agenda...guess what folks THEY DON'T! It's clear as day what THEY stand for. Forget bringing up the past with this party which seems to change its name as much as some change their underwear. THEY are people who believe in a very Right-Wing Christian agenda, plain and simple. A party that socially believes that a family is made up of 1 man, 1 woman, 1 son, 1 daughter, and pretty much a partridge in a pear tree....A party that does not believe in a woman's right to an abortion, gay marriage or increased immigration of minorities. It is CLEAR that yes Mr. Harper and his Redneck suburban followers could run the government well when it comes to finances, but I really WOULD you like to gamble on how YOUR Canada stands up for ALL its citizens!

And Finally The Liberals - Oh and even though I'm not very amused with the actions of this government regarding "The Gomery Inquiry" etc....I do believe that they stand up for ALL citizens of this country. They are the real deal! Yes, they need to be accountable for they past actions, but I do believe that they ARE the lesser of three evils. Government will always be considered to be too big, too wasteful, too lenient to some. BUT they do stand for us ALL!!!

Anonymous said...

Re: Layton taking a course in money managing.

You know he has a doctorate in economics, right?