There are a number of new polls out today showing the Conservatives in the lead. But will this translate into any new seats? My estimates say no. In the latest seat projections, the Conservatives only have about a 8 seat edge on the Liberals (CONS 114 LIBS 106 NDP 21 BLOC 67). This is likely for a few reasons:
1. The numbers in Quebec for the Conservatives are rising. This contributes to higher national numbers, but no new seats.
2. Support is growing in the West, where the Conservatives have reached a virtual saturation point. There are few left to be gained. The notable exceptions include 2 in Edmonton that are up for grabs, and several in the Lower Mainland which may or may not tily Tory.
3. The Tories have not gained in Ontario. Despite the rest of the country shifting Tory, Ontario has not changed much for the past few weeks. It will be interesting to see how things progress down the stretch.
Here are the new polls that I aggregated (total sample size 4200):
- Leger Marketing
- Strategic Counsel
- SES Research
Stay tuned for more aggregates and tracking polls.