Thursday, January 05, 2006

Canada Election 2006: New polls

There are a number of new polls out today showing the Conservatives in the lead. But will this translate into any new seats? My estimates say no. In the latest seat projections, the Conservatives only have about a 8 seat edge on the Liberals (CONS 114 LIBS 106 NDP 21 BLOC 67). This is likely for a few reasons:

1. The numbers in Quebec for the Conservatives are rising. This contributes to higher national numbers, but no new seats.

2. Support is growing in the West, where the Conservatives have reached a virtual saturation point. There are few left to be gained. The notable exceptions include 2 in Edmonton that are up for grabs, and several in the Lower Mainland which may or may not tily Tory.

3. The Tories have not gained in Ontario. Despite the rest of the country shifting Tory, Ontario has not changed much for the past few weeks. It will be interesting to see how things progress down the stretch.

Here are the new polls that I aggregated (total sample size 4200):
- Leger Marketing
- Strategic Counsel
- SES Research

Stay tuned for more aggregates and tracking polls.

6 comments:

cdnMP said...

New Website starting up after Election to hold MPs accountable - will grade each MP and give Awards - see website http://www.cdnmp.com/

Go see Awards that will be given.

Anonymous said...

This election is exposing the imperfection and make belief of the media. Most main stream media are visually and overtly biased towards Step hen Harper with the reporting style you are seeing.

Well, bask in the high polls of the media and face the reality of voters come jan 23 o6!

Col Smart said...

Much is yet to be seen in this election. It is unfortunate that Canadians will be making decision based on manupulated facts and make-overs and make belief purposely designed and perpetrated by the media to hide the true nature of the faces behind the conservatives....
Well, with the devine intervention on the way, Canadians will be saved a bush republican kind of government in Canada. This will surely come to pass. Mark my word....

glasnost said...

Kudos to cdnmp; I look forward to future visits to your site.

RE: anonymous(6 Jan) and col smart - Why is it that the media are biased and manipulating facts, when the Liberals are losing? Does this mean that the media chooses to report the unbiased truth only when the Liberals are ahead?

"Devine intervention"? - you Liberals crack me up.

Verdant Bluski said...

Excuse Me... did I hear the Greens right, they are going to spend money in Haiti as a priority?! I am sympathetic to the multi generational plight of the post Franco-Colonials but please pour my money wastefully in Canada and not into serving this centre for drug trafficking and find other more sensible means for aiding a population in real need of progressive change.

Anonymous said...

glasnost, Wrong, sorry. You are way wide of the net with that shot my friend. The Media are owned pretty significantly by well understood commercial interests in all G8 Countries. Before casting your vote you may wish to research some of those interests and how they are likely to benefit in different possible outcomes. I don't tell people which way to vote but i do tell the them to think about how they vote...and with a name like glasnost I fear you may vote a way I couldn't countenance, I like the True North Strong and FREE!