Finally. With new polls come new data. With new data comes the latest seat projections..
And the seat projections show the Tories pulling ahead of the Liberals to form a possible minority government. This is close to what democraticSpace was predicting yesterday (but before two new polls came out). Even though the Tory seats are minimal in the East, they are dominating the rest of the Country (although dominating may be a strong word to use for Ontario).
Here are the polls we have first aggregated, then plugged in to create seat projections based on regional data provided by previous elections:
|1:||SES Research Jan. 3||1200|
|2:||Ipsos-Reid Jan. 2||1000|
|3:||Strategic Counsel Jan. 2||1000|
Seat Projection for January 3/2006:
There are different sub-stories to these numbers:
- The NDP is collapsing already in many parts of the country. Yet this still is not putting the Liberals over the top. In some places, it cannot get worse for the NDP. The NDP is trailing the Greens in our aggregates in Quebec.
- Conservatives are surging all over the country. In Quebec, the Conservatives are still polling very low. Yet, they are on the rise. And if the rest of the country is leaning heavily toward the Tories, there is some evidence to suggest that they could win a seat or two.
- The Bloc have been cooling off. A month ago they were polling in the 60-percent range. Now, they are mid-50s.