Tuesday, January 03, 2006

Canada Election 2006: New Seat Projections for January 1 (Globe and Mail / IPSOS / SES)


Finally. With new polls come new data. With new data comes the latest seat projections..

And the seat projections show the Tories pulling ahead of the Liberals to form a possible minority government. This is close to what democraticSpace was predicting yesterday (but before two new polls came out). Even though the Tory seats are minimal in the East, they are dominating the rest of the Country (although dominating may be a strong word to use for Ontario).

Here are the polls we have first aggregated, then plugged in to create seat projections based on regional data provided by previous elections:



Sample
1: SES Research Jan. 3 1200
2: Ipsos-Reid Jan. 2 1000
3: Strategic Counsel Jan. 2 1000


3200

Seat Projection for January 3/2006:
Liberals: 107
Conservatives: 114
NDP: 25
Bloc: 62



There are different sub-stories to these numbers:
  • The NDP is collapsing already in many parts of the country. Yet this still is not putting the Liberals over the top. In some places, it cannot get worse for the NDP. The NDP is trailing the Greens in our aggregates in Quebec.
  • Conservatives are surging all over the country. In Quebec, the Conservatives are still polling very low. Yet, they are on the rise. And if the rest of the country is leaning heavily toward the Tories, there is some evidence to suggest that they could win a seat or two.
  • The Bloc have been cooling off. A month ago they were polling in the 60-percent range. Now, they are mid-50s.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

The jpg has a typo in the Bloc total.

Also, i'm guessing the projector you ran doesn't take into account that Kilgour isn't running in Edmonton again.

That seat and a further 7 switching from lib to cpc would make a strong minority (cpc+ndp>154).

Jonathan said...

You are absolutely correct on both counts. Odd typo. And no, it does not take into account that Kilgour is not running. I may do some hand tweaking to these projections in the future, though. Right now, I feel that Kilgour's riding is up for grabs, although I would assume it would return to the Conservatives.

As far as those 7 go, where do you think they could pick them up from?

Anonymous said...

Actually switches from the Libs to the NDP or CPC would count towards the 7.

Say 5 in Ontario, 2 in BC. I think 17 is bottom for the CPC in BC and that the CP or NDP will take back a few of the seats that are currently projecting Liberal.

You could use www.electionprediction.org/2005_fed/index.html
to tweak the seats that involved independants or floor crossing. They have calls for the ridings of Kilgour, Parrish, Stronach, & Cadman, but none yet on O'Brien & Desjarlais.

Don said...

Jonathan - can you change the x-axis in your poll tracking to reflect real time passing.

The data shouldn't be evenly spaces as the dates aren't. Use a scatter graph in Excel.