Thursday, January 26, 2006

The conventional wisdom

Well, barely 2 days have passed since the Conservatives were flung into a minority government position.

It took only a few days for the media and the pundits to assess the situation. The almost universial mainstream media assessment was a "thin blue line" exists with the Tory government. The Tories, it is thought, have a weak minority. They have to work with other parties. The Tories have barely a mandate. The Canadian public wants the Tories on a short leash. They have to pander to big metropolis cities (the ones the Tories were were shut out of on Monday). Blah blah blah.

But let's be serious. The Tories can do whatever it is they want. And they should use this opportunity to rule like they have a majority. Thus, Conservatives ought not be down that their party did not secure 155 seats on Monday. No one will bring the house down.

There are three obvious reasons that stand out.
  1. Canada has had 2 elections in the past 18 months. It doesn't want another soon. It may have been done in the past more frequently. But this is now. And now people want stability; stability ideally means not voting often. People were saying this past election that "no one wants a Christmas election." The electorate proved the pundits wrong last time. But if we have another election soon, I am afraid Canadians' tolerance for an election will be short.
  2. The Liberals have no leader. Judging from the fact that changing leadership takes some time, the Liberals will be in no position to bring down the House without a leader. It would be suicide to install a proxy leader to lead an election on a whim of non-confidence. It won't happen.
  3. Debt. All the parties, except for the Tories, are rumoured to be in massive debt. If those rumours are true, my guess is that no party wants to be whirling accross the country consuming Russian petrol like this past winter. It just ain't ideal for most parties.
In conclusion, the Tories can do a lot this term. They can get "results" if they act fast. Who will dare stop them? If I were the Tories, I would call the bluff every time for the next year. They are home free. Clean up government, implement the policies they have been dying to implement...and then...when the time is right....pow! install Stockwell Day as your foreign minister. But only after the next election, when you get that really really big majority.

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