Monday, January 23, 2006

Election Canada 2006: The winner of the polls...SES?

I have long thought SES-CPAC was inaccurate in its polling (its methodology is quite a bit differenet than other polls).

Today, Election Day, it appears as though their final poll was dead on target. I honestly believe it was a fluke. I mean, how accurate can one be by a sample of 1200 voters over 3 days? Especially when other polls had way less margin's of error? I don't get it.

Actual vote (with the difference of final SES poll in brackers)
Conservatives = 36.3% (off by 0.1%)
Liberals = 30.2% (off by 0.1%)
NDP = 17.5% (off by 0.1%)
Bloc = 10.5% (off by 0.1%)
Green = 4.5% (off by 1.1%)

SES predicted this:
Conservatives = 36.4%
Liberals = 30.1%
NDP = 17.4%
Bloc = 10.6%
Green = 5.6%

As you can see, SES was close. Really close. Fluke.


J. DONAHUE said...


Anonymous said...

Wow, those are amazingly accurate. I'm still dissappointed that the Conservatives got most of the vote (Yet so thankful they don't have a majority); what are you thinking Canada?! This is a terrible turn for our country that will push us culturally back 50 years. It's a sad, sad day to be Canadian....

Jonathan said...

Culturally back 50 years?

I'm afraid that you couldn't be more wrong. Watch Harper.

Anonymous said...

why would you be dissapointed conservatives got in? I would have been happy with a majority. Then itd be easier for them to keep their promises.

better than having the liberals who lie cheat and steal. or the NDP whos ideals arent practical in the real world.

And there is never a sad day to be canadian.

Mark - ON

gerard said...

I think the results were ideal.

As one who admired Paul Martin at one time, I had gradually lost all respect for him---

1. His failure when he was Minister of Finance and a senior member of the Quebec caucus to blow the whistle on the Chretien crowd for the grand larceny taking place under his nose

2. His $4 billion sellout to the NDP in an attempt to save his own neck

3. His failure of conscience on many issues during the campaign., along with his shrill demonizing of Harper.

I will shed no tears at his departure.

As for the Conservatives, I think the results will give them an opportunity to show what direction they will take the country, without fear of being defeated, since no party will risk the wrath of the voters for at least a couple of years.

I find myself more and more impressed with Harper, and I am optomistic about the future.

Anonymous said...

this is crap. i wanted NDP

Anonymous said...

Martin demonized Harper. That was shameful. Thousands believed him. That was a far, far greater shame. Where did those people park their brains?

Anonymous said...

Where did they park their brains?

I guess that is a retorical question. I think it is just hunky dory to have Conservatives in a minority position. NDP are sitting pat and the liberals need to regenerate.

Anonymous said...

Harper keeps his promises? HA!

I agree that the Liberial needs some soul searching and cleaning up internally. thus maybe it's not all bad to have a minority Conservative government. But HEY CANADA! WHEN WILL YOU LEARN FROM HISTORY? Conservative SCREWED CANADA MORE THEN ONCE IN THE PAST!!!

I can only hope that with a minotity insead of a majority, Harper and his gang will not be able to cause too much damage that it'll take another decade or more to fix.

Anonymous said...

I am pleased with the results of the vote... a Conservative minority government. I am looking forward to seeing what differences happen.

I'm not an extremely knowledgeable person when it concerns politics, but I see that even discussions of it bring out the worst in people regardless of their voting preferences.

I am going to keep a better eye on politics from now on.