"every Canadian who is not comatose understands that Harper can't form a majority government, even if he wants to, and he does. Paul Martin's top-notch handling of the Quebec file means federalism is hooped in la belle province for the forseeable future. The numbers for a majority aren't there. Folks know that."Hooped? Try revived. What a difference 12 days makes:
[Nationally:] Here are the parties' diverging paths revealed by The Strategic Counsel's tracking poll, conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail (change, in percentage points, from the Jan. 12, 14-15 poll in brackets):
- Conservatives: 42 per cent (+2)
- Liberals: 24 per cent (-3)
- NDP: 17 per cent (+1)
- Bloc Quebecois: 12 per cent (+1)
- Greens: 5 per cent (-1)
In Quebec, the Liberals appear to be heading towards collapse as the federalist vote consolidates with the Tories (change, in percentage points, from the Jan. 12, 14-15 poll in brackets):
- Bloc Quebecois: 47 per cent (+2)
- Conservatives: 31 per cent (+4)
- Liberals: 12 per cent (-5)
- NDP: 7 per cent (-1)
- Greens: 3 per cent (unchanged)
The collapse is occurring both in Montreal, a traditional Liberal stronghold, and outside the province's largest city.
In Montreal, the Liberals sit at just 17 per cent -- a six-point drop from the poll released Monday. The Conservatives are up to 23 per cent, but the Bloc has 52 per cent support.
Outside Montreal, the Liberals are down to seven per cent (they captured 25 per cent of the vote in the 2004 vote). The Conservatives are up to 38 per cent, about four times their vote share in 2004. That puts them within five points of the Bloc.On the question of momentum, 76 per cent of Quebec respondents said the Tories had the most, while only 12 per cent picked the Bloc. Only three per cent picked the Liberals
That number is the same as the percentage of Liberal supporters in all of Quebec. Talk about living in fantasy.