Tuesday, January 17, 2006

Globe and Mail/Strategic Counsel/CTV: Conservatives take 18-point lead, poll shows

I guess Warren Kinsella may be a very wrong man. He said this on his blog 12 days ago:
"every Canadian who is not comatose understands that Harper can't form a majority government, even if he wants to, and he does. Paul Martin's top-notch handling of the Quebec file means federalism is hooped in la belle province for the forseeable future. The numbers for a majority aren't there. Folks know that."
Hooped? Try revived. What a difference 12 days makes:

[Nationally:] Here are the parties' diverging paths revealed by The Strategic Counsel's tracking poll, conducted for CTV and The Globe and Mail (change, in percentage points, from the Jan. 12, 14-15 poll in brackets):

  • Conservatives: 42 per cent (+2)
  • Liberals: 24 per cent (-3)
  • NDP: 17 per cent (+1)
  • Bloc Quebecois: 12 per cent (+1)
  • Greens: 5 per cent (-1)

In Quebec, the Liberals appear to be heading towards collapse as the federalist vote consolidates with the Tories (change, in percentage points, from the Jan. 12, 14-15 poll in brackets):

  • Bloc Quebecois: 47 per cent (+2)
  • Conservatives: 31 per cent (+4)
  • Liberals: 12 per cent (-5)
  • NDP: 7 per cent (-1)
  • Greens: 3 per cent (unchanged)

The collapse is occurring both in Montreal, a traditional Liberal stronghold, and outside the province's largest city.

In Montreal, the Liberals sit at just 17 per cent -- a six-point drop from the poll released Monday. The Conservatives are up to 23 per cent, but the Bloc has 52 per cent support.

Outside Montreal, the Liberals are down to seven per cent (they captured 25 per cent of the vote in the 2004 vote). The Conservatives are up to 38 per cent, about four times their vote share in 2004. That puts them within five points of the Bloc.

On the question of momentum, 76 per cent of Quebec respondents said the Tories had the most, while only 12 per cent picked the Bloc. Only three per cent picked the Liberals

That number is the same as the percentage of Liberal supporters in all of Quebec. Talk about living in fantasy.


Anonymous said...

This poll is ridiculous. Quebecers haven't suddenly chosen to gone Conservative as high as this poll is suggesting. EKOS and SES both have the Liberals around 30%, that is far more accurate than the shy 24% from CTV.

Jonathan said...

Actually, EKOS and SES have much higher margins of error and lower sample sizes. They are less accurate, if anything.

Jonathan said...

The latest EKOS has the Liberals at 27 actually. Which makes it 24, 27, 30, with SES being the least accurate by virtue of their methodology.

Jonathan said...

The latest Decima puts Liberals at 27 too.

Anonymous said...

Just to be clear, in the election 18 months ago, the SES polls were far closer than any of the other pollsters. Also, the margin of error is the same as/ or lower for the SES poll.
And, by the bye, there is something a tad suspicious in the fact that polls paid for by CTV, Global, or the National Post seem to find a rosier picture than for the Tories than those painted by CPAC-SES, which really don't appear to have a bias.

Jonathan said...

The latest EKOS gives the Tories 10 points. Same with the latest Decima.

As for your suspicions...they are unfounded. Why would people torque the results? Especially the Globe or CTV, which is partly run by Liberal party organizers in Ontario.