Monday, January 23, 2006

The turnout and turnover

I think the standard line, for the media anyway, is that turnout for this election is an improvement over last election. It sure looks that way prima facie. Elections Canada is reporting 64.9% turnout - an improvement of 4 percent.

However, there is a caveat. For one, that number does not include people who are registering to vote on the day of the election. Expect that factor to drop the actual turnout a few percentage points.

On top of that, there is a big discrepancy for people actually on the voters list and people living in an electoral district. In most cases, an electoral district is probably missing about 10-20% of eligible voters in a given area. So while the turnout may be 61 percent after the numbers are adjusted for registrations, the true turnout is probably closer to 50% or lower.

I'm just saying...

No comments: