Saturday, December 03, 2005

Globe and Mail/National Post/Toronto Star polls will have to wait...

....because blogging will be light today. Tommorrow, I will have the new numbers up - the first accurate mega-aggregate sample of the last 3 polls with appropriate seat counts.

I will also try to give you some detailed analysis of the polls tommorrow. Should be fun.

Friday, December 02, 2005

New SES Research Canada Election Poll: Liberals ahead

New polls show the Liberals with some big leads. If you want to see the national percentage breakdown, you can go to each individual poll. However, the way the regional breakdowns and undecideds are at the moment, the House of Commons seat numbers have actually moved a lot closer than they were before. Here are the 3 polls aggregated:


Rolling sample
Poll 1: SES Research Nov.28-Dec.1 1200
Poll 2: EKOS Nov. 22-24 802
Poll 3: IPSOS Nov. 28-29 1000


3002 Total


Belinda Stronach website and her Conservative past

A few people have noticed that Belinda Stronach's website still has conservative propoganda on it.

UPDATE: well, someone either "tipped Belinda's people off" or their website crashed. At any rate, the incriminating images are gone. Gone!

Michael Ignatieff and his secret

Speaking of hidden agendas, Michael Ignatieff, the Liberal star Ontario candidate revealed this faux pas to the Harvard Crimson:
“If I am not elected, I imagine that I will ask Harvard to let me back,” Ignatieff said. “I love teaching here, and I hope I’ll be back in some shape or form.”
Well, I hate to reign on his fun, but this followup sounds incredibly insincere:
Mr. Ignatieff quickly explained in a telephone interview from Boston that the comment was a joke. "I was talking in my customary way, with a lack of care," he said ruefully. "It was meant in a light-hearted humourous way . . . a kind of joke, like I was begging them to take me back."
Forgive me from being slightly suspicious. But does this -- “I love teaching here, and I hope I’ll be back in some shape or form" -- sound like a 'kind of joke' to you? If he loses his election, my money is that he cuts and runs. Some dedication to the country.

Thursday, December 01, 2005

New Globe and Mail / CTV / Strategic Counsel Poll

Here is the story. I will add it to our seat aggregator if/when the regional data becomes available. Way at the bottom you can see the results of the national percentages: the poll "found that 35 per cent of voters would opt for the Liberals, while 30 per cent would pick the Conservatives. Another 17 per cent would vote for the NDP, while the Bloc had the support of 14 per cent."

Now, if they could only tell us how many people they called - rejections and all - to get those figures.

Harper, Martin, and the Globe and Mail: hidden agendas?

Call me crazy. But it seems like every time the Conservatives say something - anything - the Globe and Mail finds someone negative to critisize it. It is news editorializing, in my opinion.

Look at these recent headlines:
Well, at least the Tories are in the headlines. Well not this one: "Martin forced to defend the GST?"

Defending the undefendable, Paul Martin for Prime Minister.

The Conservative's GST move

Today the Tories announced a cut in GST. I think this is a brilliant economic and political move. It is a tangible benefit that people will be able to tangibly benefit from. My prediction is that these types of announcements will continue: look for Harper to take the ease off of the gas pumps soon.

The only thing I worry about is that it is forgotten come poll time. Then again, if the Conservatives waited, it could be seen as desperate. On second thought, it is best to remind people during the debate.

Here is some of the reaction to the move.

Liberals (CBC): "Cutting the GST favours the rich, finance minister Ralph Goodale said on Thursday."
NDP: No reaction yet. But they did propose the idea in 1997.

Blog reaction?
Paul Wells: "I should point out that Harper's announcement of a GST cut from 7% to 5% over four years, unveiled this morning at a Mississauga video store, went relatively smoothly and it probably actually will win votes."
Andrew Coyne: I don't know what he thinks now. But 5 years ago, he wrote this.
Warren Kinsella: "This election just turned. I can feel it - this was policy, not politics, and it was big."
Political Staples: "This positioning plays right into the mainstream Ontario voter. Again smart."
Calgary Grit: "For what it's worth, I think this is a bad policy. You keep the administrative costs and cut revenue. But this gives Harper something he can point to as constructive policy. And it's going to be very difficult to argue against."

I just want to make one comment, and that is related to Goodale. Why do people always have to play the class card? In a sense, it is such "American-style" politics - that Conservatives are the party that favours the rich and so on. Of course the GST favours people who spend more; the more they spend, the more they save. But so what: are the Liberals saying the poor don't benefit? For poor people who don't pay income tax, the GST is one of the few taxes they do pay. In that sense, the class warfare rhetoric doesn't work. The poor do benefit.

Prosecute this

Some have been saying that this independent prosecutor is a bad idea:
The idea is not only dumb policy, it is also dumb politics. In Quebec, the feds seizing control of provincial jurisdiction is headline material for separatist campaign literature.
Come on. Can't he do better than that? Obviously there are jurisdictional concerns if this office was ever implemented. So what. It's almost like saying the Federal government has no de facto control over health care, which is not true - it even has a cabinet minister devoted to health. There is a simple solution people are overlooking: the federal government could work with provinces to ensure that there is an independent prosecutor in every province. It would not be coercion; it would be a joint venture. BC, for instance, already does this.

Offices in every province dedicated to looking over the federal government seems about right to me. I hope Paul Wells doesn't buy into this attack either. It's a campaign of ideas for goodness sakes, not a logistics convention.

Wednesday, November 30, 2005

Does anyone else find this interesting? According to the Strategic Council, Canadians believe that the Liberals have a hidden agenda than any other party. Yes, it was reported in the Globe.

Which one of the political parties do you think has a hidden agenda?

Liberals: 33%
Conservatives: 25%
NDP: 7%
Green: 1%
Bloc: 3%

Promises galore

The Liberal motto is "Promises made, promises kept." Maybe its me, but this sounds crafted under the influence of glue fumes.

Here are some key areas of government. Can you remember a promise made and kept in each of these areas? This should be open season for the Tories to continue to hammer away at the Liberal record.

  • :: Health - Waiting lines were so long the Supreme Court was forced to allow private care. Remember how health care was Martin's number 1 priority last campaign. Can he really run off that again?
  • :: Foreign Aid - Martin was buddy-buddy with Bono. But Martin is not keeping their promise to him by maintaining aid at 0.7% of the GDP. Way to go Martin, now Bono is pissed.
  • :: Accountability - It is not accountability to appoint the person responsible for investigating you.
  • :: Taxes - The Liberals have raised taxes $500 billion in the last 7 years. Don't let the latest progressive tax cuts fool you.
  • :: Democratization - 2 years since Martin promised democratization. Has he delivered? I can't think of one thing he has done to make this country more democratic. Further, Ms. Stronach was the Democratic Renewal cabinet minister. Do we know any of her recommendations after her cross-country tour? More on this here.
  • :: Defense - They did increase the military by a few thousand troops. Keep in mind that they have lost many more though.
  • :: Peacekeeping - What happened to all those people being sent to Dafur like Martin promised Kilgour and the country? Apparently only 2 advisors have been let in thus far.
  • :: Economy - The Liberals and NDP once promised initiatives to eliminate child poverty by the year 2000. It was in those 90's redbooks. I don't see any sign of the problem getting any better.
  • :: The enviornment - Canada loves the environment. But the Liberals have not delivered. Consider this fact: Between 1995 and 2002, Canada cut its air pollution by 1.8 per cent while the United States achieved a cut of 45 per cent, says the report by Environmental Defence and the Canadian Environmental Law Association

The sum of this equals a record to attack. Harper, Layton, Duceppe - start your engines.

Scandals! Controversy!

There is a lot going on today.

The Liberals are facing controversy over their star candidate Michael Ignatieff. Basically, the riding association is holding their own nomination meeting and accusing Ignatieff of not being a member of the riding in good standing.

The Liberals are also facing allegations of another scandal of insider training between the government and investors. The RCMP has begun to investigate. Finally, the story is getting some traction.

Finally, an "only in Canada moment": we were recognized by the third highest rated comedium in the 11:30pm time slot and we report it as news. On Canoe.ca right now, its the top headline. Admittedly, this line is pretty funny:
"Tonight, Canada's government falls. Will the streets murmur with quiet disagreement?"
More as these develop...
This is EXACTLY what Canada needs. The Conservatives today said that Canada needs a special prosecutor, much like they have in the US.

He says a Director of Public Prosecutions would operate at arms length from politicians and make final decisions on all federal prosecutions, including charges arising from the sponsorship program.

Election 2006: Day 1

A daily roundup of today's action:

Liberals:
  • Paul Martin dropped the writ, and announced Stephen Harper would endanger Charter rights.
  • The Liberals make the worst decision of the already early campaign. They start a blog with Scott Feschuk at the helm. And boy, does he try to be funny:
    "Wow, look at me! I'm in "cyberspace," where no one can hear you scream. Or maybe they CAN hear you scream but they don't pay attention because they're too busy looking at naked ladies. Either way, stop screaming, would you?"
    My money is that he is a plant.
Conservatives:
  • Harper's election theme seems to be change.
  • The media also made a mountain out of a molehill after Harper was caught suggesting the pre-existing policy that he would allow a free vote on gay marriage in the House.
  • Harper also dodged a direct question about whether he loved Canada. (this does seem like a ridiculous question, though).
NDP:
  • Jack is proud of the work he has done so far. Elect MP's so he can continue to be the powerbroker.
Green Party:
  • Their leader was MIA, out of the country.
    "Party leader Jim Harris was in Europe on a paid speaking engagement when the Liberal government fell Monday on a vote of non-confidence."

Tuesday, November 29, 2005

Stop the Press! Cease that right!

According the the Liberal Party web site, Stephen Harper will roll back Charter Rights:
"No Canadian Prime Minister in history has invoked the notwithstanding clause to override a Charter right – Stephen Harper would be the first to take this radical step."
First of all, using a clause agreed to by 9 provinces and the federal government is not "radical." In fact, it was a "necessary" clause.

Second, no political party will disrespect the law, especially not the Charter. It is empty talk. Consider this example of how "two can play at this game":

Martin on Health Care
after Supreme Court strikes down ban on private care:
"We're not going to have a two-tier health-care system in this country. Nobody wants that."
- Paul Martin, June 9, 2005.

YET the Supreme Court ruled that...
However, where the government puts in place a scheme to provide health care, that scheme must comply with the Charter. We are of the view that the prohibition on medical insurance in s. 15 of the Health Insurance Act, R.S.Q., c. A-29, and s. 11 of the Hospital Insurance Act, R.S.Q., c. A-28 (see Appendix A) violates s. 7 of the Charter because it impinges on the right to life, liberty and security of the person in an arbitrary fashion that fails to conform to the principles of fundamental justice.
UNFORTUNATELY, ONE-TIER health care that isn't speedy violates the Charter. I thus conclude that Paul Martin is ignoring Charter rights by claiming the status quo is sufficient. Further, the reason why this decision came to be in the first place was that for the past 12 years under Martin's watch, health-care waiting lists have increased to intolerable lengths.

The Liberals are not the protectors of Charter rights now any more than they were protectors of people's' rights 100 years ago under the Chinese head tax, imprisoned Ukranians in the first world war, and interned the Japanese and turned away Jewish migrants fleeing Nazy Germany during World War II.

The fact of the matter is, rights are to protect us from the government; we don't need a political party telling us that they instead will protect us from other parties.
No one has a monopoly on rights OR law.
Anyone care to take a stab at how many "number one priorities" Paul Martin will have this campaign?

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Nov. 29 Tracker












Rolling sample
Poll 1: IPSOS Nov.22-24




1000
Poll 2: EKOS Nov. 22-24




802
Poll 3: IPSOS Nov. 28-29




1000








2802 Total

Monday, November 28, 2005

My prediction

Here is my seat prediction for the upcoming Canadian election:

Conservatives: 110
Liberals: 107
NDP: 28
Bloc: 63

I think this is going to be a close one.

Final pre-election aggregate

Here is the final pre-election aggregate with the previous two polls (IPSOS, EKOS) combinedwith this POLLARA poll.

Here are the numbers:

Liberals: 123
Conservatives: 94
NDP: 24
BQ: 67

A Halloween Spooking at the Supreme Court

Read the story here. It is quite humerous.

IPSOS

Good news:

"Thank you, Jonathan for signing up for complimentary access. Because we value our media friends, you have been granted complimentary access to the Ipsos News Center."

That means regional poll data for poll aggregation. Excellent.